Monday, April 30, 2007

PS just cuts me no slack!

Maybe because these past days, I'm just complaining how much I'm not profiting from PS. Today is just another example. I probably had about 3-4 BIs swing within 300hands in PS. One was clearly a mistake, but it was marginal based on how I perceived the villian. I probably should have gave him more credit, and he's actually not as crazy as I thought he might be. The rest were just 3:1 favorites and they suck out. I actually thought I did quite well since I had 200bb stacks on 3 tables, apparently I only ended being 1BI up. Btw, I'm not really serious about this post at all. This kind of thing happen day to day, just thought for once the PS poker gods heard my cry! (yeah right!)


*******

So being the nerd that I am, I decided to watch Hookem's video again(I wonder why.. haha). I was thinking about the key points he was trying to teach in that video. Even though a lot of the concepts seem fundamental, they are definitely of huge importance. These days, my PFR seems to drop a lot as I play more confidently. I am not sure if that's a good thing but that's just how it worked out. But what surprised me is I noticed that Hookem's VPIP/PFR is very similar to mine but his pf ranges are very different.

And then it occurred to me that I am probably playing a lot more hands OOP than I really should be. Of course I'm a much better player than I used to be when I first got introduced to position advantage, but I kind of neglected the main ideas as I feel more confident playing out of position. One can be the best OOP player, but the edge of position never changes. So I decided to try out Hookem's hand ranges he used in his video, while sustaining the same stats. Wow, the difference is day and night. I mean I almost forgot the advantage of playing in position. I definitely knew where I stand with hands even more and villian's hand ranges just pops out even though you are holding such a weak holding. I almost thought the game was like on easy mode. And it solved a lot of my turn aggression problems, because OOP, you just play a lot of check/call to pot control/induce bluffs. Well, I'm not going to come to any conclusion yet but I'm going to take more shots with this.

Another thing I picked up from the video was something that I knew about but never thought much about. See, everybody has heard of table image and of course I know of its existence. But I seriously don't consciously focus into it very much. Of course I know if I'm playing 31/25/7 on a table, I am going to have horrible table image. But I feel even if you play 6+ tables, you must keep track of your image on each table. It's as important as keeping track of the villians on your tables. A good example happened today, I was holding AA with a very loose image(raising a lot of pots) and I got min 3bet pf by the guy who sits on my left. I knew this guy doesn't hold all that much, but when the action came back to me, I instant 4bet him. He didn't think much about it and calls. Basically he ended up bluffing his whole stack to me w/ Q9o when the turn came a Q. I mean this guy was just plain bad, but still I used my image and manipulated his bad playing tendencies, and I profit! Table image is something I'm going to have focus more on, just like hand reading and villian reads.


******


Since the news from yesterday, many people have send me messages/comments to congratulate me. I just want to formally thank everyone for the kind words. I'm glad my low limit trolling helps some people(definitely helped me!). It just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. I'll try to contribute as much as I can in the future as I become a better player.

Wow Hookem chose me!

I can't believe that Hookem chose me. I can't say in words how excited I am! One thing I really admire about him is that he selflessly offer to do this for the community. I'm not sure if I was in his position, I would do the same. That's why I really tried to take advantage of this, I know he's going to be great. I hope in the future, I have the same ability to give back to the community also. I also hope there will be something I can offer back to this teacher.

***

On another note, it seems like I'm running like crap on PS. Even in the last 6k hands, I'm breaking even on 50nl. Ouch. Of course I'm running like 10+ptbb/100 so I'm keeping up solid winrates. That definitely brings up some question. Also, in my last stab in 100nl, apparently PS 100nl is where I lost almost 9BIs total. While on FT, I was actually up 2BIs(horrible winrate though!). I don't know what to think about this.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

PS vs FT

I just finished a break even session today. I did get coolered and sucked out a few times. I didn't get into many stack vs stack situations. Overall I think I played decent, only problem was that I lost value on some of my pretty good hands when I got oddly raised in certain situations. The power of aggression is just ridicious, and honestly I don't feel I'm an aggressive player. I make very little plays because I do not need to. I know in the future, I will need to handle aggression better and apply it more to my own game.

Anyways, what I really wanted to write about is the difference between the two sites. At the beginning when I decided to take advantage of the rakeback at FT, I thought FT was pretty beatable but I felt the games were decently soft compared to PS. But I was doing a ton better on PS than FT. FT's roll was staying alive from bonuses/rakeback.

Now almost after 2 months, the reverse has happened. I am doing much better on FT than PS. This most likely contributed from datamining. There was one point during my stab into 100nl that my PS roll was in danger. So I decided to move funds from FT to PS. This reimbursed my PS roll. But honestly, I haven't really gain much playing in PS these days. There is no real rakeback in PS, so there is no gain in breaking even in the site.

With the FPP system, in 50nl, I'm struggling to stay Gold Star for the month. This is because I play much more hands on FT than PS. Also, PS has many many more short stacking than FT. It's hard to find a really juicy table with full stacks. Therefore I play more hands in FT than PS. It shows in the past week or two, that I have been winning more consistently in FT than PS. I don't know what this really means, maybe I'm not as adept in playing against tighter players in PS. I definitely have relied on really bad players donating to me. I rarely confront a regular unless I have a huge hand. I abuse them 3betting them light, but I rarely go beyond the cbet.

The motivation of rakeback/bonus in FT just makes you want to play more hands there. PS really flaws in that area. I'm not thinking to leave PS all together. But it's definitely something I should consider because if I don't keep at least gold star or platinum star, I'm just losing a lot of money in rake to them. I much prefer to just lose it to FT honestly, since I get a set portion back. But honestly I really feel like I'm just running really bad in PS. The last several suckout/coolers were in PS. I'm not saying PS is rigged by any means but it's easy to think that way when you are doing so much better on one site over another.

Maybe I'm relying on datamining/stats too much lately. This does give me a nice consistent winrate. And when I'm going in blindly like on PS, I am lost? Who knows? Also I feel this BR issue affects me a little when I put my stack in. There is a possibility I have to redeposit into this site in the future. This is definitely not what I want to do in a stake I'm consistently beating.
Or perhaps I'm only beating FT 50nl but not PS 50nl. That's pretty absurd, but possible! Maybe they are right that PS is full of nits(I'm probably one of them).

Anyways, I do like the flexibility of playing two sites and playing the most juicy games in each. So I don't think anything will change. I just hope I can build my PS BR a bit more, even though I will probably not consciously do this. Well good luck to me on that. :-)

Saturday, April 28, 2007

AKo and low-mid SC

Apparently I'm not doing so hot with my AKo and low-mid SC hands.

AKo is an interesting hand, you can either lose a huge pot or win a small to medium sized pot with them very often. I generally don't play them aggressive. I feel my biggest weakness with this hand is that I don't value bet them enough. Also I probably felt them in bad situations occasionally. Honestly this is a huge problem. Generally you won't get much action with AK type hand unless they have the K or the A on the flop. So how do you really get value from them? If a villian folds often when a A or K flops, your AK hands are almost worthless. Obviously there are times when people will raise you with a draw or something. But that is whole new can of worms. If you let them control the pot, the chances are that you don't know where you stand. Very often I fold to a scare card on the turn, hence losing value when I get bluffed. Sure, I'm probably laying down the worst hand very often. But how do you balance between getting value and losing value with this hand?

I feel AK is one of the toughest hands to play w/ extracting the most value in mind. It's such a vulnerable hand in these low stakes. You can't correctly induce bluffs with such a weak hand also, because letting a free card out is probably a mistake very often. And you rarely know where you stand, you are hoping your hand is best by showdown. These days, loose players tend to just call the flop with any piece and hope to improve. If they improve, they'll continue, if not they fold. So what ends up happening is that you win very small from them when they don't have much, you lose semi big when they happen to bluff you or hit 2P+. Man, this is a tough issue. I definitely still have a lot more to learn here.


Low-Mid SC type hands, wow these hands are totally a spew for me. I didn't notice this until I decide to do my random PT evaluation check. Basically I usually play them in multiway and steal in LP. Definitely their value is from their deceptive nature and blind stealing capabilities. You can almost never play them profitably cold calling against one raiser. You just don't hit the flop often enough to continue and if you do hit, you have to play them aggressively. Only time cold calling would be okay is if you plan to make a play whether or not you hit the flop, this is definitely not part of my game. But that's what you would need to do. Of course the advantage with these hand is that if you don't hit the flop hard, you get away cheaply.

My question with these hand is that, should I expect them to be unprofitable? I mean they do open up the rest of my game, but I preferably want them to at least break even or gain a small profit. I feel as I climb up the stakes ladder, these hands will become more and more valuable as fold equity goes up. Outplaying people postflop is very hard when they call you down with practically anything, and these hands just don't hit hard enough. Also I think in addition to my semi passive play these days(low aggression turn/river), these hands are death trap for me.


I don't have answer for these, but I like getting my mind engaged for a certain issue and hopefully get an answer sooner or later.

Frustrating Session

I made two avoidable mistakes, pretty disappointed at myself. One was just plain spew, I missed a key info on the villian. The other was bluffing a whole stack against a maniac(I didn't know he was a maniac at the time though), idiot called my river push with bottom pair on a 3bet'ed pot with an 2 aces on the board. Granted it probably wasn't the best bluff ever, but I convinced my self that the likelihood of it working was high against a sane villian. Obviously he was not sane.

Grr.. I hate making mistakes. Once I make one, I feel like my session just goes to crap. I still play solid, my mind just gets occupied about my mistake and I call myself an idiot over and over. It probably affects me emotionally for a period of time until it surpasses. The good thing is that it pushes me to play perfectly. Bad thing is that I start second guessing myself on future decisions on that particular session.

Again, result was decent. I ended being up 1BI, it was decent bb/100.

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Typical 50nl session

I just finished a pretty good session from 50nl. The competitions were very soft and I felt I was playing almost perfect game. Then this table with this maniac came to my attention. I noticed this guy was pushing every hand with like 300bb stacks. So obviously I played like a nit, I called him once with AJ and it held against his trash. So I was sitting with 200bb stacks and this guy was going up and down rebuying and shoving for probably 20 minutes. I mean people on the table were waiting for good hands before they go at him. So I had a 200bb stack and he had 200bb stack, he pushed me in bb and I had AKs. Well easy call, but his trash won, which kind of sucked. It wasn't a big deal. But I'm so used to very low variance game and this is just ultra swingy for me. Of course I was definitely having the best of it each time.

Before the guy finally left, he had around 50bb stack and he open pushed. I had KK in sb with 100bb. I decided to make a call instead of shoving in the rest of my stack. I was hoping for bb to come along, and he did. Well I open shoved with a Jxx flop and he had JJ. Grr.. See how quickly a seemingly "good" table can turn into a "bad" table? So I ended up being down 2BIs in this one.

I still came out ~3BIs up tonight though.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Next 100nl stab

I'm hoping to take another 100nl stab by the first week of next month. I'm already close to 40BIs but I'm realistic about winrates so I don't want to overestimate and give myself false hope.

I think I understand myself better these days. As long as I keep playing solid, I just keep playing solid. But once I make a really stupid mistake, it's hard for me to pick things back up. I need to keep that in mind. You got to understand yourself best to be able to defeat your opponents. Also, lately I've been thinking about my own game patterns. Though this is not required in the stake I play in, I want to be ready when I do face some good thinking players. I want to be able to think a level above them. In order to do that, it is by exploiting what they think they can exploit about me. These things are good to keep my brain occupied, I'm always thinking about something new about poker. The day when I stop thinking how to improve is the day I probably quit the game. And I don't see this happening any time soon.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

What the heck

So I was feel a little crummy that I was down almost 6 BI in one session. I was thinking hard about my game and of course being harsh on myself. So I came back from work early, I did another session. I ran really well and almost broke even with my downswing. You know, it is tough when you aren't hitting your hand when you got a big aggro fish raising you. I think that was a big part of the downswing, but of course I made some mistakes as I mentioned in the last entry. Getting frustrated definitely did not help.

Couple things in my mind after this session:

-I need to learn to fold marginal hands more(again), been kind of a calling station these days.
-I need to stop being lazy and put people on hands(again!), this is probably a bad habit and playing like 8 tables doesn't help.
-I need to make sure the table I'm playing at is juicy, leave if there's an overaggro donk on my left especially when I'm card dead. This one is really important, been lazy about finding new tables this morning because I was happily playing "mechanical" poker. Therefore my edge was limited, which probably led to my downswing. I need as much edge as I can salvage, just take the easy money! EASY MONEY!

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Hard on Self

During my session today, I made a really stupid mistake. I was extremely frustrated at myself. You could say I went on tilt but I definitely dropped from my "A" game because it was just so stupid. It wasn't the size of the pot that matter, it was the fact that I knew I wasn't beating anything and I still called a river bet. I was extremely disappointed in myself to make that call. I mean it's good that it grinds into my head to not make that mistake again. But on the other hand, it craps out the rest of my session. I went from a very good session to basically a mediocre session just because of one mistake.

Thinking about this mistake, psychologically, human makes mistakes all the time. You try to rationalize everything in your head and if you miss one key information, you will make an error. I don't know how you can minimize these occurances. I mean, how can you control what goes on in your head? Making a mistake once is okay, but the same mistake twice is just unforgivable. I guess I'm just a perfectionist. And knowing myself, I make the same mistakes over and over until it hurts then I eventually will learn. Sometimes you just want to strangle yourself for being stupid.

Oh well, I can't complain with a winning session.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Aggression

I upped my aggression it seems on today's session. I was running pretty well at certain time. I feel good about my game, my hand reading is pretty dead on. I was hitting a lot more flops today and made a few very marginal calls when I couldn't put them on a certain hand. Those were pretty light calls but I felt pretty confident with them. Sometimes it goes the other way, but I've been just shunning off bad results. Unless it was done by a bad decision, I don't think twice about it. I just keep moving and grinding in more hands.

Today I ran good, I was playing to 6-8 tables with pretty solid reads. At one point, all my tables had tough decisions. I mean I always played 6 tables and never run into these situations. Being a past war2/bw player, you learn to multitask very often. But today, at that moment, I was worked. I got a huge headache after things slowed down. So I cut my session short to recover from it.

Lately, I feel like my game just leveled up. These past days, I've been making pretty solid reads and playing really solidly. This is a good sign. But I know I still have a lot to learn.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Solid Poker

I've been consistently playing pretty solid poker. There's been a lot of juicy games out there. For some reason I don't feel like I'm making the most out of them. While I'm sustaining a respectable winrate, part of me just feel that that it should have been doubled. I guess I just need to learn to be patient, and keep getting better.

Overall, my hand reading skills have been very tuned these days. Even though I opened up back to my usual amount of tables, I feel my read is not too bad. Though there are some marginal spots where some maniac turn shove on me when I have TPGK, without specific read, I really can't call it. In those spots, I lose some value if I was ahead. But I can't worry about it, because you just gotta get bluffed sometimes.

One thing I haven't been doing is using my read to make plays. Like for example, if I think he has a mid pair that wants to get to show down and I know he has that. I see a scare card, I don't fire 2 barrels to get him off it. Time and time again I see him show down the hand I put him on, but I just didn't want to risk getting called down. I don't think this level requires me to make these plays at all, but who knows, at least I know I'm capable when I do need to.

Another concern of mine these days is my turn and river aggression factor. Of course I've been playing a lot of loose games and there are always a maniac or two just firing out with air. I generally don't fire second barrel and call down with TP. Sometimes they have a better hand, but most of the time, they don't. But my turn aggression is pretty low to my standard, I know I'm calling a lot on the turn. I'm just not sure at what occasion and if I actually should. That's something I should look into. I'll be more mindful of it in the next couple sessions.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Hand Reading

Hand reading is something I'm working on these days. I'm actually picking this up much faster than I thought, I mean I had decent hand reading skills before, just never put the whole picture together. I want to get into a good habit of doing this in the future.

I'm still grinding 50nl right now. I restrained myself from taking a stab back at 100nl too early. I don't want to be playing scared in 100nl when I do get there. I want to play my absolute best and make a permanent move. So now, I just need to be patient and work on different aspects of my game.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Tonight.. hot!

I was just about to retire tonight and one table, I ran extremely hot. I had back to back hands where I flopped the nuts. I flopped a set against 2 fish on the first hand that paid me off with trash. This fish instant minraised me, it almost seem like he was slamming the button for a instant minraise. The other guy had TPGK and stacked off, against a raise and reraise. Hey I'm not complaining. So I took in a pot of 300bb. Then the next hand, I had TT in UTG, I flopped quads on a multiway pot. One guy I knew he probably have like pocket pair decided to play back at me. I pushed him off the hand on the turn when he made a sizable bet. I just didn't think he was going to pay me on the river when I'm oop, so I made such a play. Anyways, I didn't get to stack him but I took a good pot from the quads. Then the immediate hand after that I flopped a set when he had TPTK. Ya, he wanted to play back at me so he's instant called my 3bet shove. Well of course I stacked him. Then the hand immediately after that, it was an unraised pot, I flopped trips which I got a little action. I guess that's what you call running hot. I would have been probably be up a little from the session, but after that, it was a nice session.

Considering, I played only 2 tables at a time tonight. I focused on hand reading the whole time. I made a lot of marginal calls, some went in my favor and some didn't. I feel I was really in autopilot before and it costs me a lot of pots. I'm going to keep focusing on 2 juicy tables for now, and improve my reads, then I'll slowly make my way up to more tables.

But conclusion is that 50nl is definitely a ton softer. I tried hard to table select in 100nl, I seriously couldn't find a really really juicy table. I ended up sitting with decent players that are probably not that great, but are "decent". I had an edge on them but I feel they probably had some on me too. Anyways, I'm going to keep building my roll until I take another shot. Hopefully that will be soon.

Monday, April 9, 2007

Finally..

I finally took the step down. My PS roll is like dead almost. I didn't tilt, just feel like I'm not beating the limit. I took some time to think about my game. I'm putting more efforts into hand reading. Hopefully I pick things back up. I'm going to grind up from 50nl. Jumping down a level, I just immediately see the difference between the levels. It's pretty drastic. Players are just so much more aggressive in 100nl.

Anyways, this is a good time to work on the mechanics of my game. Taking in all the things I learned from 100nl, I feel like I'm again becoming a stronger player.

Sunday, April 8, 2007

Struggling

I'm definitely struggling in 100nl. Only possibility is that I'm running really really bad. I've been playing a lot more lately, mostly to cut my losses or whatever. But I haven't done like 3+ hours sessions that often lately and I'm doing a lot these days. I'm just getting no action or being card dead.

Even though I'm basically breaking even, I feel I'm being pushed to perform better. This is good, I'm going to try to stay in the limits even if I keep breaking even. I like the challenge and I'm going to go at it head on within the limits of my BR.

On another note, I've been thinking more about timing tells. I think it's invaluable in an online environment. Remembering the timing of each bet and using it to help you make a good decision is a must. Another thing, I haven't been doing a lot lately is to pay attention to people's hand ranges. I usually look at the HH to see how they play a hand, but I mostly ignore PF. I feel this will give me an extra edge if I can manage doing this well.

Saturday, April 7, 2007

Lazy bum

Aggression in 100nl so far is ridicious. I feel like I'm getting floated so frequently and I feel like being outplayed so often. I almost say that I'm not beating 100nl at all. People make fewer and fewer mistakes and I probably make a small set myself. So in the end, I'm probably breaking even.

On the other hand though, I really enjoy playing less tables and feel like it's worth my time. I only play 4 tables and making pretty good money(if I'm winning). I'm kind of bouncing up and down right now with my BR. One day I'll be up 2BIs, then I'll drop 2 the day after. This is driving me insane. I've been exercising table selection, but it's just hard to find the right hands to bust those fish.

Back to the topic at hand, I feel I'm playing more and more lazy these days. The game was so automatic and all I do was play the same hand the same way and was beating it. Now that I'm struggling, I'm finding more and more faults in my game. One of them is being lazy on putting people on hands. These days, all I do is play my hand based on the action they give me, I don't really conciously put him on a hand until the action requires me to do it. So with the advantage of playing less tables, I am going to focus harder and more on hand ranges/hand reading.

Friday, April 6, 2007

Deception is the key?

Tonight, I actually ended up having a winning session. Small winning session but a winning session nevertheless. I've been adding more deception into my play and instead of putting money first in a lot, I've been doing more c/r and raises. I feel every time I put money in the pot, someone with a draw or whatever just will decide to raise which puts me in a tough decision. Obviously with TP or whatever, I call, but I really don't know where I stand with the hand. Any scare card puts me on the spot and it's almost impossible to correctly guess without a dead on read.

Also, I do notice people in 100nl are actually thinking more on the 2nd level. So I think I need to be more in tune with what they think I hold. I've been getting a lot of success getting paid off just applying very basic deception when I have a huge hand. I want them to be the one making the mistakes. Since I feel the majority of the players just have such a high aggression factor, you can almost guaranteed if you have a good hand, they'll pay you a bit. I think this way, I am much harder to predict as a player and maybe that was why I was running bad lately. I was seriously not winning any medium sized pots because it usually gets folded on a turn bet. I also started applying more 2nd barreling with air, so many donks just call the flop lightly. You almost just have to fire twice to know what hand they really hold. It's just so common for them to call and float you. So I started making that line with actual hands and c/r or c/c them.

Another note is that I should stop playing such an ABC game because it's too predicable and it's hard to get paid off. I do notice I'm improving in my preflop game. I 3bet very lightly pretty often and I'm sure it's a huge part of my winrates. 100nl is definitely a refreshing challenge. My only real concern is that I'm sitting on marginal sized BR. I'm probably going to drop down once I lose another 5 BIs or so and rebuild.

Thursday, April 5, 2007

It's bleeding and it's not stopping

This downswing is continuing. The biggest problem I feel is that I am not getting value from my hands. And as much as I try to avoid getting into iffy situations, it just comes up. Well it doesn't help I ran into KK vs AA(haven't seen for a long time now[me KK]) and set got sucked out. It's like the combination of not hitting and getting coolered/sucked out together hurts a TON!

I don't know if I'm doing something extremely wrong or something. But I feel they are just dodging my hands so easily. Maybe I have a tell I've giving off? I actually had to try to make more deceptive plays and let them bet into me. Maybe that is required in 100nl? I don't know. I may have to soon drop back down to 50nl because I might just bleed to death.

Emotionally I'm taking it pretty well. I'm actually pretty positive about it. I'm pretty confident about my play but results are not showing and it feels like every donk is a better player than me right now. Oh I hope I climb back the other way soon.

Made another session, helped...

I took a couple hours break. I came back and try to get in another session. It helps a whole lot when your cards are hitting, not big ones but still when you have some TP type hands, you can at least defend your own against aggressive players. Anyways, I made back almost half of what I lost earlier, which is a great feat by itself. Mental endurance with this game is just so vital that it's ridicious.

One thing I did notice is how effective 3betting light is. There is a level of variance but people steals so much in this level and just playing good pf game can easily make you a nice buffer of winrate. Also I believe it opens up your postflop game a lot too. This guy, who I am sure is a regular was 3betting like almost every other hand. His play is very spewy but because of his 3betting, he gets paid off very easily when he hits the flop hard. Of course he's also pushing with second pair and whatever also. I'm glad that is so because I won the biggest pot of my life from him. Basically he 3bet'ed me, he hasn't been pulling crap at me at all but I was holding AA w/ effective stacks of 200bb. I didn't want to play him postflop cheaply because he would easily has a huge advantage if he hits a huge hand against me. So I decided to 4bet him and play my hand for stacks no matter what. Of course that happened, he pushed with 2nd pair(99) and I obviously called. I think I would be a lot more worried if he played it slow. Oh well, he helped pay for some of my deficits.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Swings comes and goes..

Kind of scary because the past week or so, I've been running just so hot(winning session every night) and tonight I was running the worst I've ever ran. Hand just did not hit for me, and guys were very aggressive. When I did hit with my big hands, I lost a lot. I wouldn't say I ran into huge coolers, but when you play a long session and seriously nothing hit, you'll bound to get in trouble. Conclusion is that, it's much easier to lose a lot than win a lot. I definitely did not tilt, just made some marginal plays and reads. Overall I didn't feel like I played bad, but results is just unspeakable.

I really don't know what hit me, but my BR was definitely hurt from tonight. I don't feel anything right now, but I do have to be careful with my BR now. It sucks, variance is a bitch. One thing I noticed is that I loosen up a lot with my play on certain tables, but these are not what got me. The typical thing that happens is I raise PF, I miss the flop, I cbet the flop, they float me or they raise me. Easy fold. When I do hit, they either fold or they flopped a much better hand.

I seriously think that if someone else was to play my hands tonight, they could have gone busto with even the largest BR. Anyways, I'm going to take a long break. Maybe it hasn't hit me yet, how much this stinks..

Monday, April 2, 2007

Long Term Winrates and BR management

Something I've been thinking about is the topic of longterm winrates. It's something that I feel is underrated by a lot of players, including myself. Essentially, it's really what you are worth as a poker player. Obviously, like myself, I'm always improving and learning new ways to increase my profits. But steadily, you have tagged a # that is what you are worth as player. Things such as tilt and leaks affects this #, but nevertheless, this # should accurately represent you. Perhaps you are a losing player because of tilt. So this # is in the red for this individual in a long run.

So what am I trying to get at? Well, working at a certain weakness in your affects your winrates. If you are a long term winning player, you almost have nothing to worry about in a long run. You will in time keep increasing in profits. One or two days worth of bad days are not going to affect your overall winrates. You're only to increase your profits is the amount of hands you get in. So more hands = more money. But the only problem is that if you are a losing player and you don't know it, more hands = less money. Haha. That's so obvious but keeping these things in mind, you should feel more indifferent about winning and losing sessions.

Looking back on the things I worked on even the past 2 months or so, I already improved a lot since I started this blog. Of course, at the time I knew I had a lot to learn but I felt my game was peaking because I knew most of the "in"s and "out"s of the game. The truth is though, I had a lot to learn. Heck, I'm sure in another 2 months, I will say the same thing about my current self. What will it do for me? Of course, it is all about the increasing of winrates and player worth. If theoretically, I don't improve from what I know now. I feel as I keep playing, I will eventually hit a wall where my mistakes will break even with my opponent's mistakes. Then in turn, I will become a break even player in a certain limit. I do not know where the wall is, but I know it exists. But hopefully as I improve as I've always been doing, this wall will be pushed farther up and farther up.


****

Another thing I've been thinking about is bankroll management. I understand perfectly about comfort zones and good bankroll management. But I feel as a normal human being, you are always striving for progress. This is why I've been pushing myself to move up. Of course I do so in good means and confidence. But the thing we are not in control are the cards. You could go 5BIs up one day and down 7 another. This is unlikely but statistically possible. Your BR serves as a purpose to absorb such swings. And lately, I've been pushing up the limits very aggressively. Actually not really that aggressive, because I'm a nit at heart. But definitely much more looser than I originally planned. I know I'm never going busto until I go on super monkey tilt(theoretically possible), the fact that part of me is still trying to convince myself not to worry about variance and the unlikely-hood of huge downswings. Hence I thought about winrates above.

In the Cardrunners forums, it's very common for people to have poor BR managements. I think this is very understandable. Let's say you have 40BIs of 50nl, you go on what you think is a 15BI downswing. You assume you are a winning player, you continue with your BR and hope to turn it around. What ends up happening is that you will fall dangerously low and in turn you might have poor BR management in the 25nl(1 limit down). I believe if you have a good sample size of winning(maybe >100k hands), assuming you can beat the limit and not dropping is fine. But I think what gets the player is more about the confidence level, and rebuilding that is almost as important as rebuilding your BR.

I think what really pushes me to move up is the constant obsession of progress; actually specifically the progress of "money". I feel the time invested is not optimal to what I should be earning. Perhaps that's a little arrogant and naive, but I really need to see this investment(poker) to be worth my time. I'm not talking about X dollar per hour here in a certain day. I'm talking about from the beginning of my poker journey to the present and then to the future. I'm definitely winning some profit from my original investment, but so far the amount made is simply not worth the investment(in time and money). I mean of course, I enjoy the game and its challenges, which balances out a lot of this discrepancy. But in the beginning, I'm really looking for poker to get me an respectable amounts of side profits. So far, I'm getting much closer, but it's still lacking.

Therefore, when I decided to move up from 50nl to 100nl, I really wanted to get closer and closer to the goal I'm projecting for. Definitely, if I sustain a 5bb/100 winrate in 100nl for 2 months, I will easily be satisfied with my original investment. I'm just not so sure if I can grind 50nl for another month or two for the sufficient "safe" BR for 100nl. Of course I can, but I am always tempted for more. I guess what I'm really getting at is the fear of pushing too quickly because I probably will never be completely satisfied with my results. I will keep pushing up the limits when I might not be adequately rolled for it(at least not parallel to my original plans).

Also so far, I have not cashed out at all from my winnings because I've been aggressively trying to build a bankroll so I can make the *real* cash. And I feel if I start withdrawing, I will probably not ever make more as I would be "killing" my BR. I guess I need to think more about what my plans are with my BR management. I am definitely not struggling to pay bills and need to withdraw but I like my investment to actually show for something. Maybe the idea to withdraw a small amount per month is a good idea. I guess I'll tank this one out in the next day or two.

It's late, so I'm glad I got some stuff out of my mind. It's mostly ranting about random things and reorganizing my thoughts. I can surely reconfirms that this blog definitely helped my growth a lot.

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Another Session, reconfirm

Ya, I did another session. People definitely are less out of line than they were in 50nl. They still call their TPGK down easily, their stack vs stack mistakes are much lower than they were in 50nl. Maniacs are pretty tough to beat due to their aggression and their level of "maniac" is higher, they are smarter. So it's easy to fall prey to them.

On another note, I didn't win any 100bb stacks, but I did keep up a nice winrate winning small pots over time. I guess that's how it is in higher limits. My stats are pretty normal other than that my PFR went down a little bit. Overall, this is pretty much my normal game. I haven't really made ANY bluff at all, maybe just cbets and some semi bluffs. That's pretty much a big difference between my game in 50nl and 100nl. I made a lot more second barrelling, but I feel even though people give second barrels more respect, it's hard for me to make it profitable when they are still very tight on their TP. They are never folding them. Maybe I just need to find better spots.

I'm sure as I play more in this limit, I'll loosen my game a lot. Even though my comfort level is very good, I know it's the same as lower limits yet. I guess this is good, so I can take time to adjust. Anyways, hope I can keep these winrates up.

Feeling the difference

I only had 2 sessions so far in 100nl, but on my second session, I'm feeling the difference between between 50nl and 100nl. It's definitely another notch up the difficulty. Perhaps I chose bad games to play but the difference felt pretty apparent.

Though I still escaped the session being up, it could have swing either way. I made some mistakes on reads for maniacs and paid them off light. The only thing that saved me in the session was AA vs KK, button first in raised pf with me in bb w/ AA. I raised him, he instant shoved, I instant called. I mean how much skills does that take to stack someone? Whatever, I hope I can adjust to the new limits and find better tables.